Client Overview
An established B2B services company with $2.5–$5M in annual revenue, focused on helping industrial and manufacturing clients grow and scale.
The leadership team wanted to strengthen their sales strategy by better forecasting revenue, identifying profitable market segments, and building a system for prioritizing high-value leads.
Challenge
The client needed answers to three key questions to support their next phase of growth:
- How can we predict revenue with greater accuracy for planning purposes?
- Where are we winning today, and what markets should we target next?
- How can we prioritize leads in a scalable way to maximize the return on sales efforts?
Complicating the challenge:
Their CRM data presented obstacles: incomplete fields, inconsistency across records, and reliance on post-engagement updates — making early-stage lead prioritization especially difficult.
Solution
I designed and implemented a comprehensive, multi-part analytics project:
- Predictive Sales Forecasting
- Built a weighted, probability-adjusted sales forecast model to project Q2 revenue with greater realism.
- Incorporated probability of conversion to create realistic monthly revenue projections.
- Market Segmentation and Profitability Analysis
- Analyzed historical sales across industries, geographies, company size, and original traffic source.
- Assessed velocity (days to close), deal value, and effort required (touchpoints per closed deal).
- Identified top-performing and emerging market segments for expansion.
- Lead Scoring Models
- Developed a simple points-based rubric for immediate lead prioritization in HubSpot.
- Trained a machine learning model (XGBoost) to predict conversion likelihood using only pre-engagement fields.
- Provided implementation-ready templates and automation guidance for CRM integration.
- ICP (Ideal Customer Profile) Refinement
- Updated ICPs based on actual conversion and deal value patterns — not assumptions.
- Delivered clear profiles by industry, geography, size, and lead source.
Click the image below for an interactive version:
Key Results
➡️ More Accurate Forecasts: Probability-weighted models deliver clearer monthly expectations.
➡️ Market Focus: High-ROI segments based on real outcomes, not assumptions.
➡️ Lead Prioritization Systems: Two new models ready for CRM integration.
➡️ Data-Backed ICPs: Profiles grounded in actual buyer behavior.
➡️ Operational Playbook: Practical next steps to translate insights into sales impact.
Client Impact
By combining predictive forecasting, operational lead scoring, and real-world ICPs, the client is now positioned to:
- Forecast with confidence and adjust strategies proactively.
- Prioritize high-value leads systematically.
- Expand into profitable look-alike markets with a clear roadmap.
- Focus sales and marketing resources where they deliver the highest return.
Ready to Drive Growth with Data?
Even without a large data science team, smart growth strategies are achievable.
If you’re ready to turn your data into action, let’s talk.
